Kitchin umjikelezo. Esifushane imijikelezo kwezomnotho. umjikelezo Juglar. Kuznets umjikelezo

Umjikelezo kwezomnotho - value ukuguquguquka of omkhiqizo esikhathini eside. Lokhu ukwehla noma ukwanda GDP lihlotshaniswa komqondo nezinga lokukhula kwengane. Kunezinhlobo eziningana oscillations enjalo, okuyinto zingafani isikhathi sabo. Iningi short-term - Kitchin umjikelezo, isikhathi lapho - 3-5 iminyaka. Okunye zezomnotho futhi sengifunde umbuzo iyehla iyenyuka okwedlulele ukukhiqizwa. Izimali nazo imijikelezo Juglar, Kuznets futhi Kondratiev.

Amagama angukhiye

Ngokuhamba sokuthuthuka, njengoba umnotho ungaphakathi okusheshayo isikhathi ukuthuthukiswa kanye yokujama tsi. Kitchin umjikelezo uchaza ekushintshashintsheni yesikhashana. wave Kondratieff usibekela isigamu ushintsho leminyaka. Umqondo umjikelezo ibhizinisi Ngomqondo obanzi elisho inkathi yesikhathi okuyindawo ehlanganisa eyodwa kuphela inkathi nokuwa, ukufinyelela nomunye. Lezi izinyathelo ezimbili kubalulekile. Isikhombi sokuthi ekuqaleni nasekupheleni lomjikelezo ngamaphesenti ukukhula real umkhiqizo wonyaka wonke ohlangene. Nakuba ngokuvamile lezi ekushintshashintsheni umsebenzi ibhizinisi abasakwazi ezingalindelekile.

History of the cwaningo

Umqondo umjikelezo kwezomnotho sinqatshiwe futhi abameleli esikoleni classical. khona labo, empeleni basuke zachazwa khona izimpi nezingxabano. Sabo sokuqala uhlole nge Sismondi. Umsebenzi wakhe uye enikelwe ukwesaba okwakubhalwe 1825 eNgilandi, lapho waba ngowokuqala obumbi bomnotho kwenzeka ngo nenkathi yokuthula. Sismondi nalowo asebenzisana naye Robert Owen walibiza imbangela ukukhiqiza ngokwedlulele kanye underconsumption, kubangelwa kungalingani ukusatshalaliswa engenayo phakathi labantu. Kwakumelwe esivuna kokungenela umbuso emnothweni kanye nezimboni. Emibuthanweni zezemfundo, umsebenzi wabo awusheshanga ethandwa. Nokho, embonweni wokuthi i-ngaphansi-ukusetshenziswa siyimbangela izinkinga, bese kuba khona izinhlayiya iyokwakhiwa isikole Keynesian owaziwa. ithiyori Sismondi yasungulwa ngu Charles Dunoyer. Wafaka phambili nomqondo imijikelezo onhlobonhlobo. Marx wabona nezinkinga ngezikhathi ezithile njengoba inkinga eyinhloko kunoma yimuphi umphakathi kosozimali futhi wabikezela ukwanda kokukhiqizwa lamaKhomanisi. Genri Dzhordzh ngokuthi ukufunisela kanye nezwe imbangela eyinhloko recessions futhi wasikisela ukwethulwa intela olulodwa isici ukukhiqizwa.

izinhlobonhlobo imijikelezo

Ngo 1860, Economist French Klement Zhyuglyar lokuqala kuchazwe ekushintshashintsheni kwezomnotho nge imvamisa zeminyaka 7-11. Yozef Shumpeter wagomela ukuthi aqukethe izigaba ezine:

• Ukunwetshwa. Kukhona ukwanda amavolumu ukukhiqizwa, kwamanani, zenzalo iwe.
• Crisis. Kulesi sigaba, sidilike Ukuhwebelana isitokwe, futhi amabhizinisi amaningi kanye nezinkampani bayahamba ungeke uzithole usuwile.
• Ukuwohloka. Intengo ukukhiqizwa amavolumu siqhubeke bawe futhi zenzalo, ngokuphambene, ezikhulayo.
• Yokutakula. Exchange kabusha isiqalo ukusebenza ngokusebenzisa amanani kanye nokungena kwemali ukuwa.

Schumpeter exhumene ukuthuthukisa ezomnotho ngekukhula kwemikhiqizo lifakazelwa, sinokuqiniseka abathengi esizayo isidingo aggregate namanani. Esikhathini Maphakathi nekhulu XX, wasikisela a typology ka imijikelezo ngetemlomo yabo. Phakathi kwabo:

• Kitchin umjikelezo. Kuthatha iminyaka engu-3 kuya ku-5.
• umjikelezo Juglar. ubude bayo - iminyaka 7-11.
• Kuznets umjikelezo. Lihlobene nokubhekana ubuso ukutshalwa kwezimali kwingqalasizinda. Kuthatha iminyaka engu-15 kuya ku-25.
• Kondrat'eva wave noma Inqubo ende yokuba umjikelezo. Kuthatha kusukela eminyakeni 45 kuya ku-60.

Namuhla, inzalo ngemijikelezo kwehle kancane. Lokhu kungenxa yokuthi Macroeconomics yesimanje ayisekeli umqondo we oscillations njalo ngezikhathi ezithile.

Kitchin umjikelezo

Kuthatha izinyanga ezingaba ngu-40. Lezi iyehla iyenyuka yesikhathi esifushane aqalwa uphenyo uJoseph Kitchin ngesikhathi 1920. ibangelwa kuthathwa njengesibikezelo esiyiso lag yesikhashana kulengqungquthela Imininingwane eziholela alibale amafemu kwezinqumo. Amankampani basabela ngcono isimo commercial ngokwandisa ukukhiqizwa. Lokhu kuphumela ukusetshenziswa zigcwele umshikashika kanye dolobha. Ngenxa yalokho, ngemva kwesikhathi esithile, emakethe kuba waphuphuma izimpahla. izinga yabo liwohloka ngenxa yomthetho Zwi. Demand uwela, intengo - izimpahla efanayo sebeqala zinqwabelane emafektri. Ngemva kwesikhathi ethile, inkampani eqala ukuba wehlise ukukhiqiza. Futhi sihamba Kitchin umjikelezo.

Izimbangela nemiphumela

Kitchin imijikelezo kwezomnotho ehambisana nokulingana ukuntuleka kungenzeka wezilinganiso leso sikhathi of nezimo zezimakethe. Amankampani okudingayo ukuze uqale ukwandisa ukukhiqizwa, futhi unqume ukuthi ukunciphisa umthamo yayo. Ukubambezeleka kungenxa yokuthi abaqashi musa Ngokushesha uyaqaphela ukuthi owandile manje emakethe - ukunikezela noma ukufuna. Khona-ke badinga futhi uhlole imininingwane. Ngoba kunesithembiso kanye nokuqaliswa izixazululo practice. Akulula kanjalo ngokushesha ukuthola abasebenzi abasha noma badiliza emidala. Ngakho, yesikhathi esifushane Kitchin umjikelezo elihlobene ne ukubambezeleka ukuqoqwa nokucutshungulwa kolwazi.

Yozef Kitchin: Ukufingqa

He is onguchwepheshe British emkhakheni izibalo kanye nosomabhizinisi. Yozef Kitchin wasebenza embonini yezimayini kuleli laseNingizimu Afrika. Ngo-1923, eseqala ukutadisha short-term imijikelezo ibhizinisi e-United Kingdom nase-United States esikhathini kusuka 1890 kuya ku-1922. isikhathi sabo wayeneminyaka engaba ngu-40 ubudala. Imiphumela yocwaningo lwakhe, echaza umsebenzi onesihloko esithi "Cycles kanye izitayela izinkinga zomnotho." Umbhali uchaza khona ukuvevezela zindlela ezingafani ngokwengqondo ukuze imodi kosozimali zokukhiqiza kanye nesikhathi lags e yokudlulisa ulwazi oluthinta inqubo amafemu kwezinqumo. Ngamanye amazwi, lo mjikelezo Kitchin libhekene ukulawulwa supply kwezimpahla ezinkampanini ngokuya isidingo sabo emakethe.

Kwabe sekuqala inkathi okwakungenziwa iminyaka 7-11

Juglar umjikelezo mude izikhathi ezimbili kuka Kitchin. Kodwa yayo usosayensi khona emuva ngo-1862. Phakathi kwezimbangela ezikhonjwe iyehla iyenyuka Juglar ngokuthi ushintsho utshalomali ezimpahleni ezingasuki phansi, hhayi nje ezingeni umsebenzi. Ngo-2010, ucwaningo ngokusebenzisa ukuhlaziya Spectral waqinisekisa ukuba khona imijikelezo ezifana the Dynamics umkhiqizo wezwe okwedlulele yasekhaya.

Kuznets umjikelezo

Lokhu isilinganiso sobude oscillation. Bakhandwa lokuqala kucwaningwe Simon Kuznets 1930. Bathatha eminyakeni engaba ngu-15-25. Isizathu salokhu kumbhali cyclical ngokuthi ama-process yezibalo. Wayebheka ukuthutheleka kwababaleki nokwakhiwa Booms ahlobene. Smith nawo kubo njengoba imijikelezo ingqalasizinda utshalomali. Abanye osomnotho yesimanje ukuxhumanisa imijikelezo ngedatha engu-18 ekushintshashintsheni ukubaluleka ku ezweni njengesizathu esinomthelela zokukhiqiza. Lokukhipha bebona ukwethulwa intela ekhethekile. Nokho, uFred Harrison ukholelwa ukuthi kungasizi ngisho nokunciphisa cyclicality. Ngo-1968 Hauri wagxeka cwaningo Kuznets. Wagomela ukuthi idatha nokungalungile ihlaziye. Nokho, Smith uthe ukuthi imijikelezo akhonjwe bona kungabonakala ukukhula okwedlulele emhlabeni womkhiqizo wakuleli futhi ngaphandle kokusebenzisa isihlungi yasungulwa kubo.

ucwaningo Kondratieff

Iningi Imijikelezo eside yebhizinisi abe nobude iminyaka 45-60. Economist Soviet owaziwa Kondratieff babekholelwa ukuthi iyehla iyenyuka kuthinte yonke imikhakha yezomnotho. Phakathi nalesi sikhathi wagxila amanani, amazinga enzalo. Ngalinye umjikelezo Kondratiev zihlukaniswa ngezigaba ezine. Inkomba esemqoka, okuyinto wafundiswa, kwaba ukukhiqizwa ngokuya value. Kuze kube manje, kukhona amagagasi emihlanu eside:

• Kusukela 1890 kuya 1850, ngenxa ukubukeka injini umusi kanye ekuqaleni ukusetshenziswa kabanzi ukotini.
• Kusukela 1850 kuya 1900 main zokukhiqiza injini steel wesitimela nensimbi.
• Kusukela ngo-1900 kuya 1950 ezihlobene yokusabalalisa ugesi kanye nasekuthuthukisweni kwezwekazi lase umkhakha zamakhemikhali.
• Kusukela ngo-1950 kuya ku-1990 emikhakheni baba imithi propulsive nezimoto.
• wave okusha nolwazi kanye nobuchwepheshe kwezokuxhumana njengoba injini yenqubekela phambili.

Ngaphezu incazelo zobuchwepheshe, ososayensi abathile exhumene imijikelezo Kondratieff eside ne ushintsho ukubalwa kwabantu, ukufunisela namazwe kanye izikweletu deflation. Kukhona izinguqulo eziningana zanamuhla inkolelo-mbono yokuziphendukela Economist Soviet. Bangakwazi ngamaqembu amabili. I sekucala sigcile ushintsho ubuchwepheshe. Eyesibili uhlola umjikelezo credit. Nokho, osomnotho abaningi bengazamukeli imfundiso yokuziphendukela Kondratieff amagagasi eside. impikiswano nakakhulu emhlabeni lokho eminyakeni kubhekwe ekuqaleni umjikelezo ngamunye. I nokuqala kwezinkinga zokuwa komnotho zezimali zomhlaba esifanelana kahle ngokwanele ngemcondvo Kondratieff, okuphawula ukuqala isikhathi yokwehla.