Imijikelezo Kondratieff - imvelo kwezomnotho kanye indlela yokusetshenziswa e ukulawulwa izinqubo zezomnotho

Kuvele oluvelele usosayensi-Economist kwekhulu lama-20 Nikolay Dmitrievich Kondratev idume yokuthi wahlakulela imfundiso yokuziphendukela imijikelezo ezinkulu, eyaziwa nangokuthi amagagasi eside. Ngesisekelo mbono, ososayensi ukubeka imiphumela kwezibalo izifundo umjikelezo, okuthatha iminyaka engu-48 kuya 55. ke baye oscillations ubuhlobo adlulayo ezahlukene kanye izici ezinomthelela kilelihlelo.

Imijikelezo enkulu Kondratiev ukuvumela ukubona imithetho jikelele ekuthuthukisweni komnotho lamazwe ngamanye futhi inqubo nezwe wonkana. Izinguquko phakathi umjikelezo izigaba ezinkulu ikakhulukazi abahlobene kugucuka kwesakhiwo ayenawo kwezomnotho, isayensi kanye lobuchwepheshe.

Imijikelezo Economic Kondrat'eva Kwamiswa empirically. Ososayensi baye bacubungula Dynamics izinguquko kwamanye izinkomba komnotho omkhulu kula mazwe alandelayo: eNgilandi, eJalimane, eFrance nase-United States. Uma sicabanga uhlaziyo isikhathi - ekupheleni kwekhulu le-18 kuya ekuqaleni kwekhulu lama-20. Ngesisekelo Ukubuyekeza ziye nemingcele ezifana intengo njengenhlangano Inkomba lezimpahla amanani, inzalo dolobha, amaholo abo abasebenzi ezimbonini kanye nezolimo, namanye amazwe, ukukhiqizwa kwezinhlobo ezithile imikhiqizo (yensimbi, okuhola zamalahle nensimbi) futhi namanje abanye. Emva kokuthola imiphumela Kondratyev cwaningo lwembula a ukuguquguquka cyclical yalezi nemingcele iminyaka 48-55. Imijikelezo Kondratieff cishe ngesikhathi esifanayo, Nokho, abanye namanje kubhekene iphutha zeminyaka abafinyelela kwabahlanu. Lapho efeza umsebenzi ukuhlaziya efanayo ayikwazanga ukutholakala emkhakheni usosayensi umthengi Cycles ezinjalo.

Naphezu kwesikhathi kuqhathaniswa eside izinkomba ihlaziye (eminyakeni engaba ngu-140), kwaba ezimbili kuphela nengxenye lomjikelezo omkhulu we wave. Kodwa le nkathi kwaba Kondratyev ngokwanele, ukwakha umbono wakhe.

Imijikelezo elikhulu Kondratieff abe umlingisi jikelele futhi ingasetshenziswa hhayi nje kuphela emazweni athuthukile. Zingasetshenziswa ukuhlaziya kokubili ukukhiqiza nakweminye imikhakha impucuko womuntu (isb, imfundo, isiko). Futhi ba angasetshenziswa ukuqonda ukuthi "ukuphindaphindwa" izigaba ezithile engasakwazi amashumi ambalwa eminyaka.

Imijikelezo Kondrat'eva benezingane eziningi izici isici:

- ngaphambi kokuqala umjikelezo omusha ngamunye, kukhona izinguquko ezithile ekuphileni kwezomnotho kunoma yimuphi umphakathi (ukuthuthuka kwezobuchwepheshe, izinguquko namanye amazwe kanye nesakhiwo ukheshi handling izindlela);

- phezu umjikelezo eside kungabonakala nasemkhakheni eziningana emifushane, ngenxa ngaleso inyuka esiteji of izimo zomnotho ziba zimbi kukhona esifushane imvelo nokuthuthukisa uqine ngokwanele. In esigabeni ukwehla - konke ncamashi okuphambene;

- phakathi Kondratiev ekuphumeni amagagasi waphawula izenzakalo ezinkulu lempi.

- nge wave phansi - ukucindezeleka okukhulu ezimbonini efana nezolimo.

Imijikelezo Kondratieff unobungako zinkathi ithuba. Ngokwesibonelo, ukuvela ubuchwepheshe obusha ingekho ngezikhathi kodwa ngokuhambisana nezidingo elandayo conjuncture zamanje. Yingakho imijikelezo omkhulu, isikhathi zokuqala nezokugcina akuzona okungahleliwe, kodwa babe amaphethini athile kukhona isici umnotho kahle emhlabeni jikelele.

Futhi, lo mbono, usosayensi wakwazi ukubonisa ubudlelwane phakathi izinqubo kokusebenzisa dolobha (isinxephezelo kanye ukwehla), uhlobo cyclical lekusisa yezinguquko intengo. Ushintsho E-mshini intengo ukwakheka kungaba ngenkuthalo nomthelela izinguquko ezifanele nemingcele eziyisisekelo emnothweni kazwelonke.