Lapho iRussia ngeke unqobe le nhlekelele? umbono uchwepheshe

I-Russian umnotho crisis icubungula ezenzeka khona iminyaka eminingana. Kungokwemvelo ukuba izakhamuzi eziningi zakuleli zwe kwakuphathelene umbuzo ukuthi Russia unqobe nkinga, futhi uma kwenzeka. Phela, abantu nenhlalakahle incike impendulo kuyona. Asivume, lapho Russia unqobe obumbi. umbono Isazi kuyosisiza kulokhu.

Ukulandelana kwezenzakalo ngokohlelo lwezikhathi

Ngaphambi kokuvala ukuba zixoxe uma Russia unqobe obumbi, ake sibone-ke umsuka ngqo ukuthi iphinde ithuthukiswe ngendlela yezwe. Lokhu kuyosisiza ukukhomba izindlela zezwe ziphele kulo.

Ngemva zezimali zomhlaba Inkinga 2008 , umnotho Russian ngasekuqaleni 2010 BakaJehova, waqala ukuba kancane kancane alulame. Kodwa kakade 2013 kunezinye izimo imikhuba emibi, ebaluleke kakhulu okwakukhona ezinye outflow capital eveni. Nokho, isikali zalesi simo, noma ubunjalo crisis babe ngokwabo kakhulu ukubambezela yonke umnotho Russia bahluleka. Ngakho, isimo 2014 uhlala elihle lonke.

Okuningi ezicindezelayo nomthelela izimali ezweni lonke unswinyo kwezomnotho eziphoqelelwe 2014, West, futhi ikakhulukazi ukuwa kwamanani kawoyela elafika ngesikhathi esifanayo. ochwepheshe Economic ehlukile ukulinganisa izinga umthelela kulezi zinkanyezi phezu okubi kakhulu kokuntengantenga, kodwa iningi lazo livumelana ukuthi kuyaphawuleka ngempela.

unswinyo kwezomnotho emazweni aseNtshonalanga baye bakhonza njengendikimba isithiyo ukuqaliswa izinhlelo eziningi ezikanye, kungagcini ukuthini imishini edingekayo sokuthuthukiswa umkhakha isiRashiya, kanti kungenzeka yokusekela phesheya wamabhizinisi yasekhaya namabhange, kanye ayelokhu anda kakhulu inani capital outflow. Ngenxa yalokho, uhulumeni waseRussia bebelokhu antisanktsii kwethulwa, naye kwadingeka eziningi nemiphumela emibi emnothweni Russian. Ikakhulukazi, isidingo sokufuna abahlinzeki ezintsha kwemikhiqizo yezolimo. Nokho, ochwepheshe abaningi bayavuma ukuthi ziya impendulo yesikhathi eside uhulumeni waseRussia ebukhoneni uhlelo ngempumelelo kungaba nomthelela ekuthuthukeni kwezolimo ezweni.

A nomthelela omkhulu kakhulu kunalaba emnothweni Russian waba ukwehla elibukhali izintengo igolide elimnyama. Kuze phakathi 2014 intengo kawoyela kancane kancane kudlulwe ezingeni $ 100 umphongolo ekupheleni konyaka ke saya ku-cishe $ 55 umphongolo. Ngo-2015, ukuwa baqhubeka, futhi ekuqaleni kuka-2016 intengo bafinyelela ubuncane, bephonsa ngezansi $ 30 emgqonyeni.

Ukwehlisa intengo yemali uwoyela hhayi kuphela zathiya ukugcwaliswa isabelomali, kodwa futhi nomthelela kokuwa isihlobo ruble kwizimali emhlabeni. Liqhathaniswa ne-dollar kusukela ekuqaleni 2014 kuya ekuqaleni 2016 ruble uye yehliswa nge izikhathi ezingaphezu kuka-2.5. Nokho, kamuva, ngenxa ukwanda kwamanani kawoyela, lwemali Russian wakwazi ukunqoba emuva isikhundla kancane.

Ukuwa kwe-ruble kuye kwavusa ukwanda kwamandla emali, nokwanda okuphawulekayo izindleko izimpahla amazwe, kanye nokwehla emiholweni yangempela. Ngaphezu kwalokho, bomnotho kunganciphisa umthamo we-GDP nokuncishiswa amaningi njengoba imiklamo eminingana.

Akukho lutho isimanga ukuthi, uma sicabangela labantu manje ukhathazeke kakhulu lo mbuzo: "Lapho iRussia kuzovela crisis?"

Isibikezelo sezulu sezinsuku uhulumeni

Okokuqala, ake sibone, uma Russia unqobe obumbi, ngokusho kwezikhulu zikahulumeni.

Phakathi 2015, kusho uNgqongqoshe wezeziMali u-Anton Siluanov wanika umhlahlo yayo kule ndaba. Wathi Russia kuzovela crisis ekuqa- 2015-2016 sika. Njengoba ubona, ubude besikhathi obucacisiwe isidlulile, kodwa isimo somnotho uhlala kuqhathaniswa esindayo. Ngesikhathi esifanayo, kufanele kuqashelwe ukuthi, ngenxa ukwanda kwamanani kawoyela kuleli ngekota yokuqala ka-2016, kodwa kunezinye izimo Amathrendi omuhle.

A umhlahlo ngonanzelelo ukuthi Russia unqobe obumbi, wanika uNgqongqoshe wezokuThuthukiswa koMnotho u-Aleksey Ulyukaev. Ngokusho kwakhe, ukukhula komnotho kuzokwenzeka ngo-2017, ngoba lenza ukuba uhlehle kuzophela ekupheleni 2016. Nokho, uma iqhathaniswa nayo isikhundla abanye abahlaziyi, Ulyukayev umhlahlo ngempela okuhle ngendlela engakholeki.

Inhloko Central Bank of Russia nase wezimali yasekhaya eyaziwa Elvira Nabiullina, esekelwe abahlaziyi 'iziphetho isikhungo eliholwa wakhe, wathi ukuthi inkinga uzobe ephelezelwa umnotho Russian kuze kube sekupheleni 2016. Ukulinganisela ukukhula kungalindeleka kuphela 2018, futhi izinga layo langaphambilini, bayokhululwa ku-2019. Lesi simo Nabiullina ixhumana esungulwe uwoyela zamanani aphansi. Kodwa izinguquko intengo egolide black kungenzeka kakhulu ulungise ibhange elikhulu nohlobo sezulu ukuqhubeka emnothweni kazwelonke.

UStepan Demura: sibi ngaphezulu

Ihlukile ukuhlobanisa imibono ka isikhundla Russian uhulumeni ku umbuzo "ngabe Russia zingakhokhelwa ziyaphuma crisis" has a umhlaziyi owaziwa UStepan Demura. Ngaleso sikhathi, ebikezela kunezinkinga zemali lembulunga yonke elinezinto ezinhlobonhlobo 2008, lapho iningi nezinye izazi akuzona fana aware of amakhono ayo.

UStepan Demura ukholelwa ukuthi esibucayi kuphela saba sibi kakhulu ngo-2016. Ubikezela ukuthi by kwaphakathi nonyaka intengo dollar lalingabulawa kalula sokuwelela uphawu ruble 125 nangaphezulu. Isizathu esiyinhloko lenkinga emnothweni yesimanje Russian UStepan Demura uthi kwencika abalulekile kumiswa isabelomali isimo kusuka ukuthengiswa amandla ezingeni. Ngokusho kwakhe, Russia ngeke bakwazi ukuphuma obumbi kuze kube manje, uye okwamanje unqobe lokhu kwencika, futhi esikhathini esifushane, cishe akunakwenzeka.

Kodwa-ke kuhle ukucabangela ukuthi UStepan Demura Sekuyisikhathi eside kwaziwa for izibikezelo zayo engenathemba kakhulu mayelana nesimo emnothweni Russian. Ngenhlanhla, ingxenye enkulu yazo ziyagcwaliseka.

Slava Rabinovich: ekufikeni 'dada elimnyama "

Ngivumelana Stepanom Demuroy, lapho Russia unqobe obumbi, Slava Rabinovich, ngubani umphathi wezimali ezidumile uchwepheshe kwezomnotho. Libuye linombono wokuthi Russia olinde ngaphambi kuphela eziya ziba zimbi isimo. Rabinovich ukuthi namanje nombuzo obalulekile ukuthi Russia unqobe obumbi yezwe, ngokuya zezombusazwe, njengoba unjalo namuhla.

Slava Rabinovich uthi Russia ulindele ukufika "Idada Elimnyama" ke obumbi kuzothatha ngezinga elikhulu ngempela. Le nkulumo ibhekisela umcimbi omubi lukhulu ukuthi ungaqala ukusabela chain of nezinye izakhiwo, ekubhubhiseni sonke isakhiwo ukuphathwa.

Ngokwesibonelo, uma ucabanga of omunye Russian amabhange systemically ezibalulekile iqalwe inqubo ucabanga eziningi ezibalulekile for amabhizinisi wezwe kwezomnotho ukuthi ziholela oluqinisayo abalulekile nobukhulu bale nkinga.

Indlela aphume esibucayi ngoba Russian Slava Rabinovich kulesigaba akaboni. Kodwa kufanele wazi ukuthi umelene langempela lohulumeni okhona njengamanje, ngakho amaphuzu akhe kungenzeka ukwethula ingxenye enkulu luhlangotsi.

Kudrin: iqoqo izinyathelo unqobe obumbi

Wayesho ukuthini ngalo mbuzo, lapho Russia unqobe obumbi, kuyinto owayenguNgqongqoshe Wezezimali we-Russia, futhi manje uchwepheshe ogunyaziwe Alexei Kudrin. Ngo amazwi akhe yamuva, uveza ukuthi inkinga kwafinyelela umvuthwandaba ngo-2015. Nokho, esho futhi ukuthi akufanele uphumule, ngoba obumbi kuzozwakala isikhathi eside kuze kube manje.

usuku oluqondile ophumayo yokugcina crisis Kudrin ubiza. Kodwa uthi kuzo kuzoba kakhulu nzima noma kungenzeki nhlobo ngaphandle ikhambi izinkinga ezithile. Kudrin unombono mayelana nendlela ukuphuma bomnotho eRussia. Okokuqala, isinyathelo maqondana eliletha ukuthula emnothweni Alexei Leonidovich wathi ngcono ukuphathwa komphakathi, okuyinto okwamanje ayizwakali.

Liphinde kuyingxenye ebalulekile iyaqhubeka ibizwa ngokuthi ukudala ubuhlobo obufudumele phakathi kukahulumeni, imiphakathi kanye nosomabhizinisi. Esinye isinyathelo maqondana kuqiniswa kwetimali tesive - ukhulisa engu umhlalaphansi. Phela, kulokhu, Ngivumelana Kudrin futhi esebenza uNgqongqoshe wezeziMali u-Anton Siluanov.

Kufanele kuqashelwe ukuthi izitatimende Alexei Kudrin umnotho Russian nekusasa kwakungesona kudala, zingabantu engenathemba ngaphezulu esamanje.

I umbono nabanye abahlaziyi yasekhaya

Akwabi isimo sokulindela okuhle uhulumeni waseRussia ukuba unqobe lenkinga eminyakeni ezayo, Igor Nikolaev, ngubani umqondisi we-Institute for Strategic and Development. Nokho, simo wakhe ngesimo akukakabi njengoba engenathemba njengoba UStepan Demura futhi Slava Rabinovich. Igor Nikolayev ukholelwa ukuthi indlela aphume le nkinga kuphela ihambisane inhlanganisela yezici ezithile. Kubo sizihlanganisa nokwanda okuphawulekayo amanani kawoyela, bephakamisa unswinyo West maqondana Russia guqula ngokushesha kwezomnotho nokubusa isakhiwo. Uma kwenzeka ukuthi okungenani eyodwa yalezi zici akusebenzi, ukukhuluma mayelana sokunqoba crisis isencane kakhulu. Kanye nesikhathi esiqondile zonke izimo ezintathu zifeziwe, akunakwenzeka ukuba igama, ngoba akuxhomekile nje kuphela esimweni yasekhaya kodwa futhi izinqubo zangaphandle.

Abahlaziyi Kr-HSE baye basungula ezimbili zimo yezingozi ngentuthuko esizayo. Omunye wabo, intengo kawoyela kuyoba ezingomakhelwane $ 35 umphongolo. I Kwesesibili eqala ukwenyuka izindleko igolide abamnyama kuya 45 zamaRandi. Kodwa kuqala futhi esimweni sesibili, kuze 2020, kuyoba kungenzeki ukukhuluma mayelana preconditions sokukhula komnotho. Vele at $ 35 umphongolo, ukulahlekelwa kwezimali waseRussia kuyoba ephakeme kakhulu kunalapho izindleko $ 45.

Kulinganiselwa ukuthi ongoti angaphandle

Yiqiniso, ezifuywayo uchwepheshe imibono kanye uhulumeni nezikhulu ngalolu daba ukuthi iRussia uya ziyaphuma crisis, ngempela ezithakazelisayo, kodwa ukuhlolwa Inhloso ngaphezulu isimo kudingeka sibheke ingxenye yenkinga. Ake sithole ukuthi kwakungani isikhundla izikhungo ehamba phambili emhlabeni zezimali kanye nezazi zemikhakha sezimali WaseRussia sika.

IMF ubikezela ukwehla okuqhubekayo emnothweni Russian e 2016-2017. Nakuba esanda ibikezela ukuthi izikhungo zezimali zomhlaba okuhle okuningi. Ayethi obumbi abayonqotshwa ekupheleni 2016. Futhi 2017, umnotho Russian kumele sibonise ukukhula 1%.

Abacwaningi e-Chinese News Agency "XINHUA", kunalokho, bakholelwa ukuthi Russian Federation ngaphandle kwezinkinga uzokwazi ukunqoba le nkinga esibhekene nayo. Ngaphezu kwalokho, asikho isidingo ukubuza umuntu: "Siza Russia aphume esibucayi" Nanguya ngempela uyakwazi okwenza ngokwayo. I izimfanelo esikhulu salokhu, abahlaziyi bakholelwa China engase ibe omkhulu yezwe, kanye nophawu lokubonisa ukubumbana kwabantu. Nokho, usuku ethile ochwepheshe kungukuthi esibizwa.

Ochwepheshe portal kohlaziyo Germany, futhi, bakholelwa ukuthi iRussia uyakwazi ukuhlela ukuze babhekane ngokuphumelelayo nobunzima kwezomnotho. Lokhu kwenzeke lapho amanani kawoyela bakhuphuke futhi, okuyinto, ngokusho amaJalimane, buyinto ngenakugwemeka, okumele abe kulindeleke ngokushesha nje emazweni OPEC ngeke nivumelana ukuza. Russia nokusimama kwezomnotho ngeke nje kodwa futhi ekuqiniseni isikhundla.

zezibikezelo zabafundi bezinkanyezi

Yiqiniso, okukhulunywa ngakho, lapho Russia unqobe obumbi, zezibikezelo zabafundi bezinkanyezi ngokuba iningi bakithi akuzona esichazayo, kodwa futhi kufanele kusho kafushane ngalesi sihloko.

Kosikazi ngezinkanyezi owaziwa Pavel Globa uTamara futhi onguchwepheshe izibikezelo, lithi obumbi kuzoqhubeka 2016. Futhi encompass Russia hhayi kuphela kodwa emhlabeni wonke. Kodwa ngokuvumelana uTamara Globa, nje inhlekelele yembulunga yonke, wabhubhisa simiso esidala ukuze izwe yithuba elihle ku-Russia ukuze udlulele phambili ukuthi, ngokwendlela ngezinkanyezi, futhi kuzokwenzekani esikhathini esizayo esiseduze.

Enye inkomba owaziwa - Fatima Hodueva, okuyinto kowamanqamu we "Battle of the izangoma." Ngokusho kwakhe, nenkathi enzima kakhulu emnothweni Russian - 2015 - lidlule. Ngaphezu kwalokho, isimo uzobe kushintshwe futhi sisimamiswe. A ncono kuzokwenzeka entwasahlobo ka-2016.

Adume umprofethikazi Bulgarian Vanga e izibikezelo zabo bathi ngeke neze nzima Russia 2016. Ngaphezu kwalokho, umhlaba wonke izovala crisis. Kodwa ekupheleni konyaka isimo kuleli zwe kanye nomhlaba uzinze ngokwengeziwe.

Njengoba ubona, umbuzo lapho Russia unqobe obumbi, izangoma izimpendulo ngempela okuhle ngendlela engakholeki. Ake bathemba ukuthi izibikezelo zabo zagcwaliseka.

Izenzo zizokwenza crisis

Izazi eziningi kukhona oyikholelwayo ukuthi ngokwezinga elikhulu le nkinga esibhekene nayo manje kwaqala iconsi elibukhali amanani kawoyela ezimakethe zomhlaba. Uhulumeni waseRussia kungaba ngokungaqondile kuphela nomthelela lokhu isici, futhi akunakwenzeka ezandleni zakhe has amathuluzi ezingaba ngempela jack up intengo igolide elimnyama.

Ngesikhathi esifanayo, izazi zikholelwa ukuthi kungenzeka ukuba sinqobe obumbi uma uhulumeni kuzothatha izinyathelo eziningana wokuguqula ukuphathwa komnotho, uzokwenza Russia ezikhangayo esengeziwe ukutshalwa kwezimali, kanye kwehlisa ukwencika amafutha isabelomali wezwe.

Ukwesaba namathemba

Ochwepheshe abaningi babikezela nesimo esibucayi isikhathi eside kwezomnotho eRussia futhi sibe nethemba ezingacacile ephuma kuwo. Ngesikhathi abameleli esifanayo uhulumeni, okungukuthi, u-Anton Siluanov, u-Aleksey Ulyukaev no-Elvira Nabiullina, afakwa kuqiniswa of isimo sezimali ngonyaka 2017-2018. Nge nabo ubumbano, ngisho abanye abahlaziyi angaphandle, ikakhulukazi, Chinese-German. Ngakho ukuthi izimfanelo sokuba nombono okhanyayo phakathi baseRussia abavamile Usekhona. Ngaphezu kwalokho, ezinye izazi ukubona isimo samanje eziningi amathuba oluqinisayo enkulu emnothweni wezwe, futhi okuphumayo ku-isikhundla okuholela emhlabeni. Ngemva isikhathi esibucayi kodwa izici ngokucacile ongathandeki, futhi inikeza izici esiyingqayizivele ngaphezulu, okuyizinto ezingavamile kakhulu.

Ngokukhuthaza futhi izibikezelo izangoma, kodwa kufanele aphathwe ngokuqapha okukhulu, njengoba la madoda abhula ngezinkanyezi zisekela iziphetho zazo namanje hhayi ngaso incazelo yesayensi imihlola.

Ngokuvamile, izakhamuzi zaseRussia ungakwazi kuphela lizotholakala ophumayo kuqhathaniswa okusheshayo crisis yezwe. Kodwa-ke kufanele lilungele ezomnotho kanye zezimali eside. Kulokhu, ngisho noma isimo esibucayi udonsa on, siyokwazi ukuhlangana ikhanda ivuliwe. Njengoba Bathi, ithemba engcono kodwa ukulungiselela babi.