Kuzokwenzekani kuma-euro? Isibikezelo kwe-euro

Abantu abaningi abayeki ukuzibuza ukuthi yini eyokwenzeka euro esikhathini esizayo esiseduze. Isimo engazinzile kwezomnotho emhlabeni kwenza abantu bebheka izindlela ukulondoloza imali yabo, futhi ukuguqulwa ku currency angaphandle ubhekwa njengomunye we izinkomba kungenzeka. Thina ukugxila eqinisweni ukuthi ochwepheshe ekujaheni kute acagele manje, njengoba iningi labo e zinyanga eziyisithupha ezidlule banephutha.

Ukuqinisa dollar ngokumelene euro

Ngo-March 2015, abahlaziyi abaningi bathi ekuqiniseni uhlelo dollar ngokumelene euro. Kwakukhona zibikezelo by 2017 lwemali US ifaniswe ngokugcwele eyodwa European. Naphezu pullback, okuyinto kungabonwa lonke April, isimo ongakabi uhlaliseke. Ukuze bathi Dynamics omubi kwe-euro, ekugcineni washintsha, kusemasisha kakhulu.

Ukuqala Meyi kwaphawulwa for lwemali YaseYurophu ngidayisa ngesikhathi 1.1. ejensi Umhlaba ezifana Goldman Sachs, Barclays futhi BNP Paribas, wawuthi "European" uyofinyelela lo maki intengo kuphela ekupheleni 2015. Okuningi umhlahlo ukuthi ayemakhulu amathemba ababenawo eyanikezwa abameleli Wells Fargo, igxile ezingeni 1.22. Ungakwazi ukuxoxa ezimbili-uma simo. izindawo ezimbili kubhekwe: iconsi ezingeni 2-hletnego ubuncane nokusukuma a ukubaluleka 1.22.

umnotho European

Engxenyeni yokuqala ka-2015, izazi silindele ukukhula komnotho GDP 1-2%. Ukuze-Europe, lesi sibalo kungaba kubhekwe ezingaphezu kuka omuhle. Ubukele euro omuhle sezulu izinkomba olulindelekile komnotho omkhulu. Lokhu Izinga lokungasebenzi ngaphakathi 9.5%, okuyinto muva yayibekwe kuphela amadijithi double kanye noguqukozimali ezingeni 1%.

Ukuwa kwe-euro ngokumelene ochwepheshe dollar elihlobene ne ukuthuthukiswa ngaphezulu asebenzayo komnotho of America kule minyaka emibili edlule. Ngaphandle kokukhula komnotho okwenzeke olulindelekile kwe-euro esikhathini eminyakeni embalwa eyalandela, izinga kubophezeleke by izici eziningi namuhla. Kungashiwo ukunciphisa ivolumu ukukhiqizwa yezimboni eJalimane nakwamanye amazwe amaningi ezinkulu. Inkinga kufihliwe e nentuthuko engalingani EU ilungu uthi. Northern izifunda namuhla kuphela abuyiselwe emva yokujama tsi eside.

Ukuwa kwe-euro ngenxa ukusebenza Mario Dragi

Mario Draghi ezitatimendeni zakhe entwasahlobo wokugcina akushilo ngokuphindaphindiwe ukuthi uzimisele ukuthatha zonke izinyathelo ukunciphisa izikweletu zomphakathi. Lokhu ngeke kodwa kuthinte euro. Agency abameleli Morgan Stanley bathi lo mkhuba omubi uyobasekela ngomunye futhi isihlobo nokuvuleka kwe-European ukuhweba zone, kanye ukuba khona izingcindezi deflationary. It wabhala outflow esikjwameni-uhlobo ukutshalwa kwezimali, lapho udlala indima Ukubuyekeza izindlela zokukhishwa kwemali euro lwemali.

EU ubuhlobo ne Russia

Kuyaphawuleka yokuthi EU has a kwencika ezithile ku-gas amazwe ezivela eRussia, kanye yokungenisa izimpahla endaweni ka-WaseRussia. Umqulu kanye negesi ukungeniswa nokukhishelwa encishisiwe namuhla ngokuqondene unswinyo, okuyinto abeke nomthelela ongemuhle EU ilungu uthi. Naphezu ngalo mkhuba omusha, i-euro, ngokuvumelana izibikezelo abahlaziyi zomhlaba isikhathi eside ngeke sikhule. Abatshalizimali ayisekho Ngethemba ukuqinisa lwemali European. Njengoba izazi zithi, "dollar inkathi ngawo ugcwaliseka ngokugcwele." Into kuphela osalayo uthi akakwazi ukuba nethemba - lokhu kukhawulela izenzo uhulumeni waseMelika, okuyinto kuyogcina ngesilinganiso lwemali kazwelonke ezingeni elithile.

Ekucubunguleni umbuzo kuzokwenzekani euro esikhathini esizayo esiseduze, ochwepheshe abaningi ukuzama ukuphoqelela ku inqubo Yiqiniso isimo nge Greece. Abahlaziyi ejensi ezweni Stratfor ecabangela izindlela ezimbili kuphela izenzakalo:

• EGrisi base bekwazi ukushiya indawo euro eJalimane bayofaka uphawu German. Lena enye yezinhlobo ezingu izibikezelo ezimbi kakhulu EU, okuzothumela pair of "EUR / USD" kuya ukubhukuda kude eningizimu. Khona-ke kukhona ingozi yokuwa ephelele lwemali European.
• Eyesibili inketho - phambili ngokubambisana ne iGrisi eJalimane. ngosizo lwezimali ukuze zihlinzekwe States, akusho zingenze nasemnothweni womhlaba wonke jikelele EU, kodwa kuphela ukubambezela yonke Ukushesha okukhulu kwezinguquko ukukhula ukuthi ngeke umcimbi inhlekelele.

"Omunye dollar - euro" njengoba omunye zimo okunye

Uma ucabangela umbuzo kuzokwenzekani ne euro eminyakeni embalwa ezayo, abahlaziyi ka Goldman lizwakalise izinga lokushintshisana ezingeni US $ 0.9 = 1 euro -2017. Ochwepheshe bengayeki ukukhuluma mayelana usongo deflation futhi cishe zero, kanti kwezinye izindawo nokukhula omubi emnothweni. Kusukela ekuqaleni kuka-2015 lwemali kazwelonke European wawa 2.6% ngokumelene zezimali zamazwe 9. Ukuze silinganiso nge dollar uhlala esifushane, mayelana 15% kuphela.

Kuhle kokusho ukuthi euro kakade phansi ezingeni elifanayo njengoba lwemali US ngo 2012. Ekupheleni kuka-2014, i-euro ilahlekelwe cishe 12% ngokujulile ukubaluleka kwaso. Ngokusho Chris Iggo, umphathi wenkampani imali esinqunyiwe AXA Investment Management, silinganiso bungatholakala, uma umgomo wezimali we Fed kanye ECB zihlala zinjalo. Thina basho ukuthi ekwindla 2014 the ECB kwehlisa izinga ku ezifakwa ngu 0.2%. Echoes Okuthunyelwe Draghi ukuthenga izibopho eNgophezukonke European futhi ukubamba esigabeni esilandelayo inqubomgomo ka ubuhlungu ambalwa ebonakalayo namuhla EUR / USD iconsi format.

ngokubuyiselwa kwesikhashana

Zanamuhla pullback euro kuya enyakatho - ke is phetho ngqo izenzo ezathathwa ECB ekupheleni 2014. Sikhuluma ukunciphisa inani lenzalo kusuka 0.15% kuya 0.05% kanye ukwehla zenzalo yokuzigcina imali, okukhulunywe ngaye ekuqaleni. Lezi zinombolo ngokomlando iphansi zone euro kwavusa amabhange ngenkuthalo uboleka real, kunokuba zezimali wemboni. Ngemva kwezinyanga eziyisithupha, ngemva ukwamukelwa of izinyathelo ezinqala of the ECB, emnothweni zaseYurophu zaqala alulame kancane kancane. Khumbula ukuthi ukunciphisa akekho ukuyichaza amazinga. Esimeni esinjalo kwakubonakala kungenzeka zezomnotho eziyisithupha kuphela okwaxoxwa ngamashumi amahlanu anesixhenxe.

Euro ne Russian lwemali kazwelonke

Naphezu kweqiniso lokuthi euro ngokumelene isimo dollar uhlala negative, isilinganiso ruble / euro kuyomane amaqiniso abonisa okuphambene. Lwemali European ngokumelene ruble esikhathini esifushane bayoqhubeka bekhula. Mandle umnotho yaseYurophu ngokumelene isizinda Russia osesimweni evumayo kakhulu. Isimo kubangelwa izenzakalo ezenzeka emafutheni emakethe emhlabeni. In parallel ukuwa kwamanani kawoyela bayovuka kanye euro. Naphezu kuyanda zamanje kwamanani kawoyela, ochwepheshe Namanje elinde ekwehleleni amanani for uwoyela kuze kube Januwari ongaphakeme, ngakho ungakwazi ukubala Jump ukukhula euro eRussia yesibili. Ungakhohlwa ukuthi umhlahlo kuyinto umhlahlo, futhi amathuba kuphezulu ukuthi ruble uzoqala ukuqinisa ukuma.

Siyoba yini intengo yama-euro, ngokuvumelana abahlaziyi best emhlabeni?

imicabango yabantu Isazi kuhluke ngokuphathelene euro, futhi izimpawu ukuthi ayemakhulu amathemba ababenawo yabo. Deutsche Bank okholwa ukuwela silinganiso futhi ukumisa Yiqiniso at $ 0.95 euro ngasinye ekupheleni 2017. Isibikezelo George Saravelos kumbhali isukela ephuzwini lokuthi ngo-2000 i-euro / dollar othengwa ngawo ngesikhathi 0,8300. Ngenxa isakhiwo negagasi iyehla iyenyuka ngezikhawu iminyaka eyisikhombisa eziyisishiyagalolunye, ochwepheshe Deutsche Bank ungaboni yini isimo inhlekelele.

yasebhange British HSBC kunikeza ube nombono ukuhluka kwe-euro. isikhungo sezimali, ochwepheshe bayaqiniseka ngokuthi ekupheleni 2015, i-euro liqhathaniswa ne-dollar ngeke ukudayisa 1.19. Barclays abameleli wayemthanda ezingeni 1.1, okuyinto kuyabonakala namuhla, kodwa Morgan Stanley ochwepheshe sithambekele ukuthola 1.14.

Okwamanje, kunzima ukusho, ukuthi baziphathe kanjani e-euro esikhathini esizayo. I namuhla intengo akuyona uhlaliseke, eqinisweni, njengoba yena EU umnotho ngemva obumbi akuyona kuphela ekupheleni 2014, kodwa 2008-2009. Inxanxathela isimo oluyiqiniso kungaphazamisi bakholwe abahlaziyi abaningi nekusasa elihle kakhulu European iyunithi yemali. It kusazobonakala kuzokwenzekani ne-euro olwengeziwe.