Ukulwa e Syria: Izimbangela Nemiphumela

Kuze kube manje, omunye ezifundeni elinezinkathazo eziningi zomhlaba ukhuluma Syria. Kuyinto ensimini ka uMbuso ukuba amaqembu amaningi kakhulu impela nje, kuhlanganise elikhulu kubo - LIH. Impi waseSiriya oye waqhubeka iminyaka eminingana manje futhi kubangelwa izici eziningi ezahlukene. Inkolo, ezombusazwe, nokuthuthukisa ezenhlalakahle kanye nomnotho, le Islamization sabantu, njll A round esisha zalesi sibhicongo e Syria kwaqala ngo 2015. Ngakho yiziphi izimbangela eziyinhloko futhi imiphumela iminyaka emine zempi?

Ukulwa e Syria: ekuqaleni ukungqubuzana

Kwagqashuka impi Syria akuzenzakaleli. Wahlasela "Arab Spring" kwaba isizathu ukuthi ensimini ka uMbuso waqala ukwakha ukunyakaza emelene nohulumeni, ababe ngokuqinile ngokumelene uMengameli yaseSiriya zamanje Bashar al-Assad kanye linqoba 'Baath "iqembu ePhalamende. Lokhu kwaholela eqinisweni ukuthi ihlobo lango-2011 kwagqashuka impi e Syria phakathi kwamabutho kahulumeni emelene nohulumeni womanyano. A indima enkulu okwenza isimo kudlalwa Kurds, abaye baba wesithathu zinqobe. Ngo-2014 futhi 2015 isimo eSyria iye yaqhubeka iwohloka ngenxa khona ukukhuluma ngethonya elandayo kwenhlangano amaphekula LIH.

Ngokwalo mbiko we-UN, isizathu esiyinhloko we zinqobe kulelizwe ungaphakathi ukukulungisa evulekile ngenxa yezizathu zenkolo. Nokho, amaqembu ukuba impi - amaqembu Shia futhi Abashokobezi Sunni - umbono sinqatshelwe.

Kuze kube yimanje, zinqobe kwakukhula kuze kube izibhelu evulekile isisekelo kwamahlelo yobuhlanga. Lokhu kuye kwaholela ukuntengantenga ezinkulu zezombangazwe nezomnotho esifundeni, kanye izisulu eziningi ezisetshenziswa umphakathi.

Naphezu kweqiniso lokuthi ososayensi zezombusazwe Ukushayela inombolo enkulu yokunquma izimbangela zempi, zonke zazo zingahlanganiswa ibe Umthala olulodwa, okuyinto okungasisiza senze lokhu ngandlela-thile kubangela ezinye.

Ukuswela bendawo yaseSiriya

Ukulwa eSiriya, ngokuvumelana abacwaningi abaningi, ngokuyinhloko ngenxa yokungabi bikho sokuphepha efanele emphakathini nasemnothweni sabantu. Kodwa uma simba kancane ezijulile, singazitholela ukuthi inkathi 2011 Syria anganikeza ngokugcwele bona imikhiqizo, ngaphezu, endaweni athuthukiswe kahle umkhakha ukukhanya. Ngokwezibalo, mayelana 10% of the lwemali ingeniswe ku lizwe eyayithunjwe abaseSiriya, ngubani sasiphuma kwamanye amazwe ukuze isebenze. Ngamanye amazwi, abantu, okuyinto kungaba ngaphasi kwelizinga lebuphuya, kule nkathi isikhathi encane kakhulu uma kuqhathaniswa bonke abakhileyo isimo. Nokho, kuba nabantu bale stratum kwezenhlalo banquma ukwenza jihad ngakhethi eSiriya.

Freedom - yilokho okushiwo ukuphila amaSiriya

abahlanganyeli Abaningi kwavukelwa emelene nohulumeni e Syria kusho izakhamuzi ngazwi linye watshela ngokuthi babezothola umholo zinenkululeko eyengeziwe futhi ekubusweni uhulumeni, okuyinto uthembise Bashar Asad, wafika yomnyango inhloko yezwe. Ngamanye amazwi, babengafuni ukuba baqhubeke behamba kuleyo ndlela ka conservatism, kanjalo Sangena "Ephakathi." Ngempela, wakhe izinkulumo ukhetho wamanje umongameli wama-Aram, uthembise nesimanje umnotho isimo sika, kanye iqale indlela kwedemokhrasi enikeza izakhamuzi nenkululeko kubaluleke kangaka.

Phakathi nokubusa kwakhe, Bashar Asad kuye kwenza yezwe, kuhlanganise amaholo wazibuza yona futhi impesheni lempi kanye nabasebenzi bakahulumeni. Ngaphezu kwalokho, izinguquko yasebhange kwenziwa ezweni ifinyelele zimali, okuyinto ngcono microclimate yaseSiriya. Nokho, lezi zinguquko babe kancane kancane, ukuthi akazange ivumelane abashisekeli the "Arab Spring", osuvele kabusha emazweni amaningi eMpumalanga Ephakathi ngaphansi ngendlela yalo.

Isici sezenkolo - a nesimiso esiyisisekelo kwavukelwa ahlomile

Yiqiniso, lokhu yikona isibe okuyisidingo okubi kakhulu isimo eMpumalanga Ephakathi. Ukulwa eSiriya, Isimanga siwukuthi, abazenzi phakathi kwalezi zinto zombili izinkomba Islam - Sunni and Shia. "Ithiphu" kahulumeni emelelwa Shia (Alawite), kuyilapho iningi labantu - Sunnis. Naphezu ukubekezelelana zabantu bendawo, ukuba bahlanganyele umphakathi owodwa, izinkomba ezimbili abakwazi nokuthi liphendulwe ukungqubuzana evulekile phakathi maqembuqembu.

Ubuphekula - "isishayo" kwekhulu lama-21

Okokugcina, ngisho esibucayi kuleli qophelo sohlelo netimbangela impi Syria ithatha ubuphekula. I LIH lifaka njalo ukungena amalungu amasha abazimisele jihad ifeza kokubili ngaphakathi isimo futhi bathuthele kwamanye amazwe, e-Europe, i-Russia, Melika. Esinye sezizathu ayinhloko ukuze ukungena abantu LIH - umholo ngo 5000 zamadola, ekhokhwa ngenyanga eyodwa. Leli qiniso kuye kwaholela okwandisa amabutho Russian elwa amaphekula e-Aramu, okuzokwenza ukuvimbela Ukungena jihadists ensimini WaseRussia, kanye nasekuqiniseni ngxabano lempi nezihlubuki umSiriya amabutho kahulumeni.

Kungani Russia le mpi?

lokulwa Russian e Syria ngenxa izithakazelo oqondile isimo. Sokuthi leli lizwe umlingani onokwethenjelwa Russia eMpumalanga Ephakathi. Uhulumeni waseRussia, kuhlanganise umengameli wayo V. Putin, ziqondiswa izinqubomgomo ezokwenza usimamise isimo eSyria. Kuyadingeka ukuba imingcele isimo babe ezolile, ngoba ukuvumela Firebolt "ubudlova" enjalo kusukela omakhelwane - kusho ukubonisa singenamandla zabo emzabalazweni ubuholi emhlabeni.

Amandla Russian ahlomile silwa Syria zidinga izindleko eziningi zemali, kodwa yilokho kwenza kube nokwenzeka ukuba kuqedwe main namuhla isintu inkinga - ubuphekula. Ngemva stranoy- "wahlala" LIH yiso Syria. lokulwa kwamuva kubonisa ukuthi iRussia uhlose ukubhekana nale nkinga, ngokungafani kuya nabalingani bayo kuze igazi yizakhamuzi, njengoba kwenzeka ngo-November eParis. Kodwa akugcini lapho.

Phakathi kwezinye izinto, izenzo kulwa Armed Forces e Syria ahloselwe US kanye EU amazwe, exwayisa ngokuthi akufanele kube nesandla iselelesi Finance olunikezwa ukudayiswa lamafutha emthethweni. Lokhu impikiswano kuqinisekiswa ukuchayeka webutho lezempi of Turkey, Russia, okuyinto usezuze "igolide abamnyama" ngentengo ephansi kusukela LIH abashokobezi.

Kufinyeta, singasho ukuthi ukulwa eSiriya, izenzo waseRussia kukhona pragmatic, okuvumela hhayi kuphela ekulinganiseni isimo eSyria kodwa futhi wonke umphakathi, kanye ukuqeda le nkinga lobuphekula bomhlaba wonke.