Negesi ziphathelene China: ngobuhle nangobubi bawo

Ngemva kweminyaka eminingi izingxoxo, Russia ekugcineni wenza idili igesi ne China. Kusukela ngaleso sikhathi, impikiswano ukusayinwa inkontileka alupheli. Imibono ahlukana. Abanye bakholelwa lokhu kuthengiselana kuzuzisa kakhulu, kuyilapho abanye - ukulahlekelwa. Kulesi sihloko sizoxoxa ngemiphumela emihle nemibi isivumelwano ngoba ukunikezelwa Russian "fuel blue" e China.

Imigomo deal

Okuchaza ukuthi inkontileka igesi eChina? Imigomo kuthengiselana zimi kanje: inkontileka kuyinto iminyaka engu-30, imali $ 400 billion. Amazwe amabili oyokwakha iphayiphi lapho China uzothola Russian igesi yemvelo ezidingekayo sokuthuthukisa umnotho walo. Ngaphezu kwalokho, inani elanele "fuel blue" kuzocaba lomoya ezweni. Njalo ngonyaka eShayina izothunyelwa 38 cubic metres of gas. Ngokuhamba kwesikhathi, lo ivolumu ukunikezela kuyokwenziwa kabili. Njengoba-Russia, it is, ngaphezu izinzuzo ezisobala zezimali, uzokwazi diversify emakethe hydrocarbon yayo futhi ukunciphisa ukuncika eNtshonalanga Yurophu.

Pipeline "Amandla yeSiberia"

fuel nokuthengiswa oyokwenziwa phezu wegesi main "Amandla yeSiberia". Iyoba yesimiso ukuthuthwa Irkutsk Yakutsk izikhungo zokukhiqiza igesi igxile supply "fuel blue" eChina, eJapane, eKorea neMpumalanga Ekude.

Isigaba sokuqala "Yakutia-eKhabarovsk-Vladivostok" wegesi sihlelelwe ukuqala ukusebenza ngo-2017. Ubude ingqikithi ukwakhiwa kuyoba mayelana 4000 amakhilomitha. Ekuqaleni ke kuyodingeka 3000 amakhilomitha ngesikhathi esisele iphayiphi - amakhilomitha angu-800. I ububanzi we amapayipi ka iphayiphi - 1420 mm, umthamo wayo - 61 bhiliyoni cubic metres ngonyaka. Umzila Umzila okuzokwenziwa wathelisa "Amandla yeSiberia", kuyoba indawo ipayipi elithwala uwoyela "Eastern eSiberia-Pacific Ocean", okuyinto uzokunika ithuba ugcine izindleko zokusebenza ngengqalasizinda kanye nokusebenza kwamandla ngcono.

Izisusa kuthengiselana

Kukholakala ukuthi inkontileka igesi eChina - umzuzwana ukufohla ezihambisana nesimo eziyinkimbinkimbi geopolitical eYurophu. Nokho, ekuphetheni izivumelwano ezinjalo akwenzeki ngosuku olulodwa noma ngisho izinyanga ezimbalwa. Iminyaka eyishumi nanhlanu ukwakha ubudlelwane, iRussia neChina. Negesi inkontileka - kuwumphumela eside umsebenzi onzima ukwakha emikhulu ubudlelwano bokusebenzisana phakathi kwemibuso emibili ukuze bahlanganise isikhundla salo izwe. Njengamanje, ukubambisana phakathi eChina naseRussia lithole esiyindilinga entsha, kokubili zezombusazwe futhi ngokuya kwezomnotho. Hhayi ngephutha, inkontileka eziningi igesi ebizwa esiyingqopha-mlando ne China.

emakethe diversification

"Ningawucimi zonke amaqanda akho kubhasikidi owodwa," - Isaga sithi. Ngempela, i-Russia unomphela nge-Western Europe, izingxabano kungaholela nemiphumela engalindelekile. unswinyo kwezomnotho, lapho amazwe EEC ozama "isizathu nge" izwe lethu emva ukubusa eCrimea isiRashiya, bangayiqonda igesi namafutha izimpahla. Futhi uma kusuka Russian "igolide abamnyama" Europe kuyoba nzima ukwenqaba, ngoba insimu yayo kukhona zokuwuhluza eziningi, "fuel blue" kulo mqondo-ke usengozini. amazwe EEC kuyinto disadvantageous kakhulu ukulahla imithombo yemvelo Russian. umlingani wawo obalulekile - United States - esikhathini esizayo esiseduze ngeke bakwazi ukungena kwimakethe yokuphehla European nge esiningi igesi yemvelo. Nokho, usongo sisekhona, ngakho isikhathi usayine inkontileka igesi Russia. China, okuyinto ngo-2014 kwaba juqu for ekuqiniseni ubudlelwano phakathi wamazwe kwezomnotho kanye nezwe lethu, akunakwenzeka ukwesabisa wakhe yimuphi unswinyo.

Ochwepheshe uqaphele ukuthi uma kwenzeka ukwehluleka yeYurophu ku inkampani igesi yemvelo Russian "Gazprom" uyoba okunye ayakufanelekela. Ake sithi inani "fuel blue" European emakethe sizokuncitjhiswa kusukela wamanje 29% kuya ku-16%. Ukukhathazeka, ukuze singalahlekelwa yokuthengisa, kuyoba okwanele ukuze wandise ivolumu uphethiloli ithengiswe eChina bhiliyoni 70 cubic metres.

utshalomali Chinese emnothweni Russian

Ngo-2013, umthamo we utshalomali ngqo e China emnothweni Russian zaba 4.08 dollar ayizigidi eziyinkulungwane. Lena sibalo sincane kakhulu, uma kubhekwa ukuthi umnotho we kwamanye amazwe, China usise achitha izinkulungwane zezigidi. Nokho, ngenxa ukwanda ubudlelwane Russian-Chinese ngo-2020, utshalomali China kulindeleke ukuthi ukhule kasikhombisa. Enye yezindawo ethembisayo e China ngokuthi izimali ekuthuthukisweni komnotho Ekude.

Inhlangano ka zokuthumela Russian "fuel blue" e China - emikhulu utshalomali project asemqoka emhlabeni jikelele. Kuphela endaweni Russian Federation ekwakhiweni ezokuthutha izakhiwo kanye ukukhiqizwa gas iyitshalwa cishe $ 55 bhiliyoni. Ngasempumalanga live letfu litawube ingqalasizinda igesi omkhulu, okuyinto yokuthuthukisa umnotho sonke isifunda. imikhakha yonke emnothweni Russian sizothola umfutho ezinkulu nentuthuko: ubunjiniyela, ipayipi umkhakha, yokusansimbi. Kufanele kuqashelwe ukuthi iphayiphi "Amandla yeSiberia" lapho igesi izimpahla China luzoqala, zakhiwa amapayipi eRussia ngokuyinhloko.

Intengo kaphethiloli ithengiswe

Kungakanani ngeke Russian igesi yemvelo ozakwethu Chinese? Lo magazini kuxoxwa emhlabeni wonke. Impendulo yalowo kufihliwe ngaphansi kwesihenqo ekusithekeni commercial futhi ngalokho nozungu oyinhloko esivumelwaneni. Uma ukucacisa intengo esekelwe inani yesivumelwano igesi kanye ivolumu kulindeleke ukunikezela, inani layo kuyoba $ 350 ngamunye cubic metres 1,000. m. zinikeza nethemba kakhudlwana kuthatha Aleksey Grivach, isekela lomqondisi we Energy Security Fund. Ngokusho kwakhe, kucatshangelwa inkathi kunyatheliswe ingakapheli iminyaka emihlanu kuya 38 cubic metres of intengo igesi Russian for 1000 cubic metres. m ongafinyelela 380 zamaRandi.

Kumele kukhunjulwe ukuthi intengo igesi athunyelwa eChina kuyadingeka ukuze iqede izinga lentela phezu isizinda amaminerali, kusukela imali, okuzokwenza kube umthombo uphethiloli enikeziwe, ukunikeza izinzuzo intela. Ngenxa yalokho, isabelomali isimo uzolahlekelwa isizumbulu. It kuvela ukuthi ulayini intengo phansi "fuel blue" for China kuyoba esingaphansi izindleko isilinganiso ($ 381) gas enikeziwe "Gazprom" eYurophu. Kuyaphawuleka ngaphansi intengo isilinganiso lapho China uthola khona evela eMyanmar futhi Turkmenistan. Ngokusho JP Morgan, China othenga igesi yemvelo evela eMyanmar nase-Asia Ephakathi at $ 400 ngamunye cubic metres 1,000. m.

lwemali

Ngaphansi kwamiphi imibandela igesi inkontileka esayinwe China? Ngayiphi lwemali izokhokhela fuel, omakhelwane bethu ukuba empumalanga? Lemibuto kuthakazelise abasekeli kanye nezitha isivumelwano. Ngemva kokusayina inkontileka, ochwepheshe waqala ukubikezela revolution kohlelo lwezezimali emhlabeni wonke. ukuhoxiswa Smooth izibopho US uhulumeni imali Russian nemvelo cross-border ye operation wokuqala, kwenziwe Shanghai VTB yasebhange lwemali Chinese, akavunyelwe ukwenza iziphetho abaqaphe kakhulu. Nokho, Yabantu Bank of China sivumelwano kanye Bank of Russia ekusetshenzisweni zezimali zikazwelonke emizaneni mutual ukudalwa ilunga Russian-Chinese isilinganiso ejensi kufanele sina ziphazamisa tycoons entshonalanga. Konke uya yokuthi inkontileka ngobukhulu sisayinwe phakathi eChina naseRussia, uzokhokhelwa hhayi zamadola. Yingakho amanani yokugcina fuel Russian ingakamiswa kudalulwe. Ukuze US, lokhu kushintsha kwezinto kungaba buhlungu sina.

Ubudlelwano phakathi Russia nase-China

Emhlabeni jikelele, eChina naseRussia kukhona ababambe iqhaza ngokungafani eYurophu nase-USA. Kunomkhuba ezithile, owawuthi emhlabeni yamanani Western njengoba jikelele ibekwe. Kulesi simiso, umphakathi wonke ngamazwe akumelwe nje bagcine ngokufuna ukusebenzisa imikhiqizo efanayo, kodwa futhi ukucabanga mayelana okufanayo. Nokho, ukuthi singobani amandla ezifana Russia nase-China, sinamandla kakhulu. Lapho lezi amazwe aye azama ukwenza ususe kusukela chessboard zezombusazwe, kulandele ukusabela reverse. Izifunda seziqalile ukuvikela ilungelo ukuzimela nolwazi esinalo ngabo. EChina naseRussia lokuphinda isikhala yemasiko, futhi lokhu kuthambekela zomlando, nesebenzela emhlabeni wonke. Futhi kule umqondo akuyona intengo kubalulekile ukuthi kuhilela inkontileka Russian nge China. Negesi imithombo - elinye futhi iphuzu ezivamile contact phakathi kwalawa mazwe amabili akha ubuhlobo obusekelwe ekubambisaneni elinokuthula nelilondekile ukwethembana.

isiphetho

Sibukeze amathuba ezinkulu zezombangazwe nezomnotho ezihlinzekwa inkontileka igesi eChina ukuze izwe lethu. Izinzuzo nezingozi nebubi yesivumelwano kumele zihlolwe ukufika ngombono komnotho omkhulu. Yiqiniso, "Gazprom" ongawamukeli inzuzo esheshayo kusuka kule ukuthengiselana ezinkulu. Kodwa ukukhathazeka uzokwazi ukuhlela emakethe kwenye indawo; kahle utshalomali eyenziwe umlingani wethu empumalanga kule phrojekthi (Ukukhokha kusengaphambili ukuze kwakhiwe iphayiphi 25 amaRandi); ukudala ingqalasizinda omkhulu zokukhiqiza zokuthutha Igesi yemvelo futhi kanjalo ngivuselele isimo somnotho Ekude. Umbuzo we intengo ye-Russian igesi zosizo elisavulekele futhi iyimbangela yokukhathazeka kwezinye abahlaziyi zezimali. Nokho, esikhathini eside elithi "pluses" kwinkontileka igesi nge China kungaphezu "nebubi". Ngakho kungaba - isikhathi uzokutshela.