Ubuhlobo baseRussia neTurkey: isibikezelo sekusasa

Yiqiniso, namuhla akuyona imfihlo kunoma ubani ukuthi ubuhlobo phakathi kweRussia neTurkey, okwakhiwa amakhulu eminyaka, buye lwabhekana nezinguquko ezinkulu. Baye bahlaselwa kuze kube umkhawulo. Ngezici eziningi lokhu kuchazwa ukushayisana kwezimo zomhlaba jikelele: inothi elikhulu lempi nezopolitiki eliye lahlanganiswa eMpumalanga Ephakathi kuya e-Ukraine nganoma isiphi isikhathi singasuswa bese siphenduka igazi.

Ubudlelwane obuphakathi kweRussia neTurkey bubuhlungu kuqala ngokuthi izwe eliholwa yi-Erdogan, licela ukusekelwa kwebhuloki laseNorth Atlantic (ngaphandle kokungaqondile), lahlasela ngokungemthetho insimu yasenyakatho yeSiriya futhi yaqala ukusebenza kwezempi lapho.

Kodwa isinqumo esifanele saseRussia, esibhekiswe ku-UN Security Council, emazweni aseNtshonalanga nase-United States asizange sisekele. Yini elindele ubuhlobo phakathi kweRussia neTurkey esikhathini esizayo nokuthi kungani zikhula manje ngaphansi kwesimo "esiqinile". Ake sicabangele le nkinga ngokuningiliziwe.

Ibhomu laseRussia labhujiswa

Ubudlelwane phakathi kweRussia neTurkey bebubi kakhulu ngenxa yesizathu esingenhla. Okokuqala, lokhu kwaholela ekubhujisweni kwendiza yaseRussia Su-24M. Owesigameko salesi sigameko kwakuyihlangothini laseTurkey, okuyinto, kanye nemicibisholo "yomhlaba-kuya emoyeni," ehlasele "into engaziwa ephula i-airspace". Empeleni, lo mqhubi wenza umsebenzi wokugcina ukuthula futhi akazange ahlasele insimu yangaphandle. Kodwa-ke, uMongameli waseTurkey u-Erdogan uthe lesi sigameko se-Su-24M siyakhathaza futhi senza ucabange. Ngesikhathi esifanayo, akasheshi ukuqala ubudlelwane nohlangothi lwaseRashiya, asuse ngokuphelele umthwalo wemithwalo yendiza ebhujisiwe.

Ukungqubuzana kuqinisa

Kumele kuqashelwe ukuthi ukungqubuzana phakathi kwezwe lethu neTurkey kwaqhutshwa ezinye izizathu.

Kunelungelo lokukhumbula leli cala lomlindi uSmetlivy, owadingeka asebenze ngomlilo wokuxwayisa umthumbi waseTurkey eya ku-ramming. Umuntu akakwazi kodwa ukucasuka yiqiniso lokuthi iTurkey yavala i-Bosporus eRussia, ngenxa yalokho imikhumbi yethu yomthengisi iphoqelelwa ngaphandle kwesimiso. Ngaphezu kwalokho, i-Erdogan izwe lizama ukuvimbela ukuqhutshwa kwezigxobo zokudoba zaseRussia emanzini eNdebe yoMhlaba.

Izinyathelo ezifanele

Yiqiniso, izwe lethu alinakwenzeka kuphela kodwa lenzelwe ezenzweni ezinobudlova nezingekho emthethweni zomakhelwane "Olubomvu". Yini iTurkey okufanele ikulungele? Izigwegwe zaseRussia azizange zithathe isikhathi eside.

Okokuqala, izakhamizi zaseTurkey zalahlwa ilungelo lokwenza ubudlelwane bomsebenzi nabaqashi baseRussia. Okwesibili, ukuqedwa kwezindiza ze-charter phakathi kwezwe lethu kanye nesifunda saseTurkey kwaziswa. Okwesithathu, ukuvakashelwa kwezokuvakasha ezweni laseNtshonalanga kuvinjelwe. Okwesine, umbuso wama-visa-mahhala ususwe neTurkey . Okwesishiyagalolunye, izigwegwe zenziwa ngezinhlobo ezithile zemifino, izithelo, izinhlanzi, izilwane zasolwandle, ezazingeniswa ezweni eliholwa yi-Erdogan namuhla.

Ingabe i-Turkey yahlupheka? Ukugwetshwa kweRussia kwafakazela ukuthi kwakuyikho.

Amabutho Ezikhali

Kungani u-Erdogan enomuzwa wokuthi uyaqiniseka lapho enza ngokusobala izenzo ezingenzi lutho ezweni lethu?

Yiqiniso, uzizwa (ngaphandle kokungaqondile) ukusekelwa kwe-NATO. Eqinisweni, ukuze afinyelele izithakazelo zakhe eSiriya, ubala izinqola zakhe. Kodwa ingabe ibutho laseTurkey neRussia lifaniswa? Yebo akunjalo.

Isibonelo, ezweni lakithi amandla abasebenzi aphakathi kwabantu abayizigidi eziyi-1 abalwa amaTurkey ayizinkulungwane ezingu-410. I-arsenal ye-arsenal yaseRussia okwamanje iyinani lama-21,000 amayunithi, kanti umakhelwane we-Black Sea unamayunithi angaphezu kuka-3 000, cishe ingxenye yawo ayisebenzisi kahle.

Isimo esifanayo sibonakala ngezikhali zokulwa nezikhali. Naphezu kokuthi ibutho laseTurkey neRussia liyizigaba ezimbili ezihlukene, kepha uma sicabangela amandla okuzivikela kwamazwe amabili, izinzuzo ezihlaselweni zamabutho namathangi ziya ngemuva. Kungani? Yebo, konke ngoba iRussia neTurkey abanayo imingcele yomhlaba.

Isimo esiseduze sihambisana neyethu uma siqhathanisa ikhono lombutho womoya. I-VCS yaseRashiya inamandla amakhulu okuqhuma amabhomu, okungashintsha ngokujulile "indawo yaseshashalazini yokusebenza kwempi", kokubili emhlabathini nasolwandle.

Futhi, yiqiniso, izimboni zamazwe ashiwo ngenhla azihambisani nanoma yikuphi ukufaniswa. Yebo, umuntu angayithanda imishini yokudoba yaseTurkey: ama-corvettes ayisishiyagalolunye, ama-submarines ayishumi nane, ama-frigates ayishumi nesithupha. Kodwa ezinye izibalo azikwazi ukusiza ukumangaza: kuphela e-Black Sea iRussia inezinqola zempi ezingamashumi amahlanu.

Ihambisa iTurkey ezweni lethu ngenani lemishini yokusekela imishini. Ngakho-ke, ngokuqhathanisa iRussia neTurkey kusukela ekubukeni kwamandla empi, umuntu angaphetha ngokuthi ibutho lika-Erdogan linamandla futhi linamandla, kodwa ngokusobala liphansi kakhulu kithi.

Inqubomgomo Yezinqubomgomo Zesibili

Naphezu kwezinga eliphakeme lekhwalithi yobuhlobo bomhlaba phakathi kwamazwe angenhla, i-Ankara ayigodli ukusebenzisa imigomo emibili ezindabeni zomhlaba jikelele futhi angaphuthelwa ithuba lokuzuza izinzuzo ezibonakalayo, ngezinye izikhathi ukubhekana nezinhlangano zamaphekula.

I-Kremlin ibilokhu iphindaphindiwe ukuthi iTurkey iyabhubhisa ama-bandits, abese enza ubugebengu endaweni yaseRussia. Izinkonzo ezikhethekile ze- Ankara zanikeza zonke izinsizakalo kumaSulumane amakhulu kakhulu eNyakatho Caucasus. Kwabuye kwaziwa ukuthi iTurkey inikeza izigijimi ezinezikhali nezinhlamvu.

Kwakukhona ulwazi olusemthethweni ukuthi u-Ankara ungomunye wabalingani abalulekile ekuthengiseni amafutha, okukhishwa amaqembu aphulwa ngamazwe ngamazwe.

Futhi konke lokhu kwenzeka ngokumelene nemvelaphi yezitatimende zika-Erdogan, okuyisisekelo esiphuthumayo kulokhu okulandelayo: kubalulekile ukuqinisa ukulwa namaphekula.

Ikusasa

Singakwazi yini ukukhuluma ngokuthuthukiswa kobudlelwane phakathi kweRussia neTurkey? Kungenzeka ukuthi akunjalo. Kodwa ukusho ukuthi amaqembu ahlose ukumisa inkhulumomphendvulwano, akudingeki. Lokhu kubonakala ukuthi uMoscow ulungele ukufeza izibopho zalo ngaphansi kwezivumelwano eziphelile, kanti u-Ankara akasheshi ukuphoqa izigwebo zokuziphindisela. Uma sikhuluma ngezinketho zokubambisana kwezomnotho, cishe cishe, imodi yebhayisikili izosetshenziswa lapha.

Ukuqalwa kobudlelwane phakathi kweTurkey neRussia kuzokwenzeka lapho kwenzeka ukuthi u-Erdogan neqembu lakhe bathathe umhlalaphansi, futhi umlandeli wakhe ngeke agxilwe nomqondo wokuvuselela uMbuso Wase-Ottoman.